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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

However this year's race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical year!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still