A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
